NFL Betting: Odds Makers Favor Patriots, 49ers in Championship Week
by Bodog Sportsbook Staff | Jan 20 2012
And then there were four.
The NFL season started with the potential of a lockout, then a fast-tracked free agency period and a shortened training camp. After that, 32 contestants entered the season as equals, 12 qualified for the postseason and after two rounds of action, just four teams remain.
In the AFC, the New England Patriots, who are a perennial playoff constant, are a big favorite on the
NFL betting lines this week as the Baltimore Ravens visit in the AFC Championship Game (3:00 PM ET Sunday). In the NFC, the New York Giants visit San Francisco (6:30 PM ET) for the second time this season and they find themselves as a small road underdog on the
betting lines at Bodog Sportsbook.
Sunday's winners will head to the Super Bowl, so here's a preview of the two all-important contests:
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Baltimore Ravens @ New England PatriotsSportsbook Odds: Patriots -9
Total: 50.5
If you're simply going on last week's performances, the Baltimore Ravens might not stand much of a chance.
The New England Patriots dismantled the Denver Broncos 45-7 last week in record-setting fashion while the Ravens barely held on to beat the Houston Texans 20-13, who were starting a third-string rookie quarterback in his first road playoff game ever.
Needless to say, Pats quarterback Tom Brady is a step up in competition.
But delving a bit deeper, there might be a good case to make for the Ravens on the
betting lines.
For starters, they were 7-0 against teams with a winning record this season compared to the Patriots, who only faced two teams that finished above .500 and lost to both of them. Furthermore, these teams have squared off three times since the 2009 season with all three contests coming in New England, and the Ravens won the playoff meeting (33-14) and lost the other two regular season visits by an average of 4.5 points.
The question for the Patriots is whether or not Brady and the passing game is enough? He works with a pair of special tight ends in Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, and slot receiver Wes Welker is as good as they get, but the Patriots rushing offense ranked 20th and their defense ranked 31st. So is the Patriots special passing game enough to overcome other flaws?
The Ravens are clearly the more balanced team as their defense ranked third in the NFL (16.6 points per game), their running game was 10th and their offense averaged the 12th most points per game.
Each team has their respective strengths so the team that executes better will win.
New York Giants @ San Francisco 49ersSportsbook Odds: 49ers -3
Total: 42
The Giants and 49ers have squared off once this season, so there is an element of familiarity.
The 49ers hosted the Giants in Week 10 and came away with a 27-20 victory in a tightly-contested game.
Normally, the 49ers tend to move the ball with their running game on offense but on that day, running back Frank Gore, who finished the season with 1,211 rushing yards and eight touchdowns, compiled zero yards on just six carries prior and left with an injury. Overall, neither team ran the ball particularly well as the two teams combined for just 170 rushing yards on 49 carries (3.5 yards per carry).
That's likely going to be the key to the NFC Championship Game.
The Giants finished dead last in the NFL in rushing offense averaging 89.2 yards per game but over the last four weeks, they've picked up the pace. They've averaged 122 per game and that's allowed them to stay out of long third down situations, balance their offense and take the burden off of quarterback Eli Manning.
The 49ers led the NFL in rushing defense and if they snuff out the Giants production on the ground, they could force them into some mistakes. Manning has been far more accurate this season when the opposing defense has had to worry about both facets of the Giants offense. If they are allowed to zone in on the pass, that will benefit the 49ers.
San Francisco was very opportunistic this season as they collected 38 takeaways to lead the NFL with a +28 turnover ratio. Last week, they were +4 as they triumphed over the New Orleans Saints. 28% of their points come from takeaways so it's fairly clear that this game will bank on the Giants ability to run the ball, avoid mistakes and make the 49ers work for their points.
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Bodog Sportsbook has live in-game betting on both NFL Conference Championship games this weekend. Bodog's got your odds to win the Super Bowl, too.***
