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Tennis Betting Odds: ATP World Tour Finals Update

by Bodog Sportsbook | Nov 25 2011

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The ATP World Tour Finals finishes up group play on Friday as the top four players hope to emerge and enter the knockout round in the semifinals.

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Rafael Nadal knocked out in group stage

In a somewhat surprising development on Thursday, No. 2 Rafael Nadal was eliminated from ATP World Tour Finals contention. No. 6 Jo-Wilfred Tsonga topped Nadal in three sets, 7-6, 4-6, 6-3. With the win, Tsonga improved to 2-1 in the tournament and advanced to the semifinals.

It was the second straight match that Rafael Nadal just didn't appear to have his best effort.
In his previous match against Roger Federer, he was defeated soundly in two sets, 3-6, 0-6. Nadal's early exit marked the fourth time in the five years that he has qualified that he has failed to make the finals; the only exception was last year, when he fell to Federer at the 02 Arena.

In other action on Thursday, Roger Federer continued to be a strong  tennis betting option in this tournament. Federer defeated No. 8 Mardy Fish 6-1, 3-6, 6-3, clinching the top seed in his group with a perfect 3-0 record over his opponents.    

Group A play wraps up on Friday

While No. 5 David Ferrer has already clinched a spot in the semifinals, there is still plenty on the line in both matchups on Friday as No. 1 Novak Djokovic and No. 7 Tomas Berdych fight for that remaining spot - and Ferrer looks to lock up the top spot to avoid a matchup against Federer in the semifinal round.

Friday's morning matchup starts at 9:00am ET, and the  tennis odds make Djokovic a solid favorite at -350 over No. 9 Janko Tipsarevic (+250). Tipsarevic has filled in for Andy Murray, who withdrew from the tournament with a groin injury.

First-set odds are listed at Djokovic -225 and Tipsarevic +170. Bettors can also bet on exact outcomes; Djokovic is -125 to win 2-0 and +300 to win 2-1, while Tipsarevic is +450 to win 2-0 and +500 to win 2-1. The total for the matchup is set at 21.5 sets, with the Over at -120 and the Under at -110.

The late matchup starts at 3:00pm ET, and is expected to be much more evenly matched as Ferrer and Berdych are each -115 in both match and first-set betting. Ferrer is +200 to win 2-0 and +300 to win 2-1, and Berdych is also +200 to win 2-0 and +300 to win 2-1. The total is set at 22.5 (-120 Over, -110 Under).  

Tie-breaking scenarios for tourney

Sets could end up being a tiebreaker in who moves on to the next round, so there might be some  tennis betting value in the 2-0 props for Djokovic and Berdych with the additional motivation.

If Djokovic defeats Tipsarevic in two sets, he would advance to the next round if Ferrer defeated Berdych or Berdych defeated Ferrer in three sets. If Djokovic takes three sets to defeat Tipsarevic, Berdych would advance with a win over Ferrer regardless of sets.

If Ferrer defeats Berdych, Djokovic will advance regardless of whether he wins or loses to Tipsarevic. So needless to say, the pressure is on both Djokovic and Berdych to not only win, but to win convincingly.

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